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Experts are hopeful. “Despite economic uncertainties, luxury designer beauty is aspirational and not going anywhere; demand and expectations are high, and the combination of Pat McGrath’s years of experience, future-facing approach and unreachable levels of skill is going to be incredibly powerful,” says Payne. The worst appears to be over. After a rough patch in the third quarter, when consumer confidence in China hit an all-time low and Chinese purchases in Japan dropped, luxury showed signs of improvement in the fourth quarter of the fiscal year. “The results on the whole were above expectations. All in all, the fourth quarter was a bit of a sigh of relief for investors — hence the positive share price moves,” Bernstein luxury goods analyst Luca Solca says. He points to LVMH’s fashion and leather goods division as the sector’s proxy: down 1 per cent in the quarter versus a negative 3 per cent forecast. “While the trajectory is the same, companies are travelling in this trajectory at very different altitudes,” Solca says. “Those who command high desirability are well in the mid to high teens organic growth — those trailing are still negative in the double digits.”Philadelphia Eagles Nothing Beats Rock Beats Scissors Paper Beats Rock Scissors Beats Paper Shirt
Results were a mixed bag. “There are massive winners and massive losers,” says HSBC managing director of consumer and retail equity research Erwan Rambourg. Hermès continued to shine with sales up 18 per cent. Richemont’s jewellery maisons, which includes Cartier and Van Cleef & Arpels, smashed expectations to reach 14 per cent growth. Meanwhile, Gucci continued to struggle, reporting a 24 per cent drop. Moncler sales were up 8 per cent. Spanish beauty and fashion conglomerate Puig reported sales up 14.1 per cent. Prada brand and Miu Miu retail sales were up 4 and 84 per cent, respectively, in the quarter. On average, luxury companies reported sales up 2 per cent in Q4, compared with a 2 per cent decrease in the third quarter, according to Kepler Cheuvreux’s calculations, which take into account company size. Kepler Cheuvreux analyst Charles-Louis Scotti stressed that we’ve hit “the end of the downward spiral in China”. That’s led by Moncler, which grew double digits in the market in Q4. For 2025, Kepler Cheuvreux predicts luxury companies will grow by around 5 per cent, below the compound annual growth rate of 8 per cent between 2012 and 2019.
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