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Declines among stock futures dipped further following China’s announcement. The S&P 500 is now on course for a 1.6 per cent decline, from 0.5 per cent earlier in the day; the Nasdaq is set for a 1.3 per cent drop, down from 0.2 per cent; and the Dow Jones industrial average looks to drop 1.7 per cent, down from 0.7 per cent. Luxury stocks are also down. Deutsche Bank downgraded its share price for Richemont, LVMH, Moncler and Kering; Hermès was the only stock it upgraded. The escalation bodes badly for global luxury. When uncertainty is high, consumers spend less. Even wealthy shoppers temper their spending when the macroenvironment is doing poorly — particularly given they often base financial outlooks on the stock market, according to Bain. Judging by Wednesday’s market performance, spending on fashion isn’t looking good. This same logic feeds into spending on luxuries from travel (airfare purchases are down) to dining out.Officials Very Nice Jojo Shirt
In a note sent on 9 April, HSBC analysts said they are cutting sales estimates by 5 per cent and EBIT estimates by 12 per cent across the board. That said, they flagged Hermès, Richemont and LVMH as “good businesses that remain solid competitors”, and called out Moncler, Burberry and Prada as favourable “less risk-averse” businesses. China is already in a precarious position, coming off of years of flailing post-pandemic growth. Chinese consumers are already facing economic pressures, and consumer confidence remains low in the region. Even last year, spending on luxury goods in China was close to flat. (At that time, Chinese consumers were increasing their luxury expenditure abroad. This began to slow at the end of the year, and is all but sure to fall even further now.) But what Chanel president Bruno Pavlovsky referred to as a “normal crisis” (China’s slowdown) last November is no longer normal — and will only get worse. The tariffs have officials, brands and consumers on high alert, the consensus being that the growing trade war will do the opposite of boost consumption and support markets.
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