The Black Knight Crusader Vintage Shirt
If prices are going up in the US, will Americans start shopping more abroad, as other consumer groups, like Chinese consumers, are known to do? The wealthy ones, sure. But for the majority of US consumers, if luxury and fashion spend is down, so is travel. “Consumers have to prioritise their [non-discretionary] spending and will likely travel less,” Lu says. Already, travel numbers from the US are looking low. The number and dollar value of tickets purchased for travel in the second and third quarters of 2025 are lagging the comparable yardsticks from last year, per research from global consulting firm Bain. Because of this, Saunders doesn’t expect the majority of US consumers to switch their spending to overseas. “Travel remains expensive for many, and a lot of Americans simply don’t travel,” he says. “We may see more luxury tourism from higher end [US] consumers, but it will be marginal in the broad scheme of things.” On the flip side, it’s possible that less non-US citizens will be spending in the US as well, Lu flags, pointing to the reports of increased difficulty obtaining visas. “It’s kind of getting harder for them to get the US visa to travel to the US to spend money here,” he explains. “I don’t think this will create very stable revenues for luxury companies.”The Black Knight Crusader Vintage Shirt
Last year, the global personal luxury goods market lost 50 million-odd consumers, according to Bain, squeezed by uncertain economic conditions paired with fast-rising luxury prices. Even as millions of consumers opted out, the upper echelons of luxury shoppers kept spending. Will this change, now that the top bracket will bump even higher? The ultra-rich — luxury’s enduring safety net — will spend no matter what, says Lu. “They will continue to spend regardless of what happens.” But those in the bracket below may well rein in their spend. Higher end consumers may be spooked by the market reaction, more than the tariffs themselves. After all, in the US, upper-income households base their financial outlooks on market performance, according to Bain. Judging by this week’s luxury stocks, things aren’t looking good. “They might be able to afford things, but they’re still feeling the negative vibes, which can impact spending,” says Saunders. Plus, Lu cautions, the luxury market isn’t sustained by ulta-rich consumers. He points to brands’ increasing investments in ‘small luxuries’ as a bid to capture upper-middle class and Gen Z shoppers. These are the groups likely to pull back now. “They will directly feel the pressure because of inflation, because of the uncertain financial outlook of the current economic situation,” says Lu. “And I do not think they will just keep spending, especially for luxury items.”
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